Russian security forces are urging Putin to escalate the war in Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Russian security forces urge Putin to escalate the war in Ukraine, ISW reports

High-ranking Russian security officials and military leaders advocate for an escalation of military actions in Ukraine, dismissing the possibility of negotiations.

This is reported by ISW.

ISW analysts note that Russian security forces believe it is essential to intensify military operations in Ukraine rather than seek a resolution through negotiations.

Russians acknowledge that their troops are not achieving significant territorial gains proportional to their losses in manpower and equipment. Despite this, the Russian military command continues to endure considerable personnel losses in exchange for tactical, albeit not operational, achievements.

"By December 2024, the daily advance of Russian troops slowed to approximately nine square kilometers after three months of territorial gains and significant personnel losses in September, October, and November. At the same time, the Russian military command may be less willing than Vladimir Putin to tolerate such high losses if the pace of advancement continues to slow," the report states.

Despite this, Russian security services and military officials are not prepared to end the war due to these losses. Instead, they are urging Putin to strengthen military efforts, suggesting partial mobilizations to likely replenish the battlefield with personnel and equipment.

Key Findings:

• Western partners confirmed their support for Ukraine and commitment to developing its defense industry during a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany on January 9. They also announced new packages of military aid.
• Reportedly, Russian elites and high-ranking security officials are increasingly frustrated with Vladimir Putin's half-measures in conducting the war and are concerned about the duration of the "conflict." Senior security officials believe that Russia should escalate military actions in Ukraine rather than seek paths to peaceful negotiations.
• However, this assessment is misguided, as Russia's main problem in the war is its inability to regain maneuverability on the battlefield, not a lack of manpower. This is a key factor hindering Russia's advancement.
• According to a report from "Meduza," Russian security forces, like Putin himself, are currently uninterested in a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
• The Russian opposition publication reported that a torture center for Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilians has been established in a detention center in Taganrog (Voronezh region).
• The UN condemned the increase in executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russia.
• On January 9, the Armenian government approved a bill that initiates the country's process of joining the EU.
• On the front, Russian troops advanced near Borovaya, Pokrovsk, and in the Kursk region, while Ukrainian forces achieved success near Sudzha.
• Russian officials continue to emphasize the Kremlin's intention to further militarize the government and society in the long term.