Donald Trump's Era: What Ukraine and the World Can Anticipate from the New U.S. President.
Donald Trump, making a triumphant return to the helm of the state, clearly spared no expense for the grand inauguration ceremony. His sponsors, including Elon Musk, Jeffrey Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg, were equally generous. In particular, the new president of the United States raised over $170 million for his inauguration—an unprecedented amount for such occasions, which is two and a half times more than the sum collected by Joe Biden for a similar event four years ago. Experts believe that money is the key and perhaps the only motivation for the new president of the United States, guiding him in all decision-making, especially regarding geopolitics.
Ukraine and Trump: Is the New U.S. President Ready to Negotiate with Putin?
0 Alexander Kraev noted: "During his first presidential term, he fulfilled no more than 35% of his loud promises. Moreover, those promises he did keep are presented as unrealistic successes that no one else could achieve. Thus, it's not a problem for Trump to leave something unfinished. Alongside his statements about ending the Russian-Ukrainian war in 24 hours, we see changes—Trump is becoming more realistic and is now talking about 100 days just to form a negotiation agenda and six months for 'at least something to start.' In other words, Trump has become a realist and understands that simply calling Putin and Zelensky to end the war is inherently unrealistic." According to the expert, a quick end to the war in 24 hours would mean capitulation. Due to his character traits, Trump cannot back down before Putin, as it is inherently unacceptable for him to appear weak.
In this context, Ukraine can provide Trump with a victory, emphasizes Alexander Kraev, as it is in Ukraine where "he can thumb his nose at the 'fearsome and terrible' Putin." "Additionally, Ukraine can pave the way for investments, strengthen NATO, and reduce U.S. expenditures in Europe, as having Ukraine in the Alliance is cheaper than having it outside NATO. Therefore, Trump's choice is between providing Ukraine with hundreds of billions of dollars over the next few years for its defense or paying nothing at all because Ukraine will be in NATO. The benefits are clear. Thus, both in terms of Trump's character and financially, Ukraine is the better option. This is something Putin cannot offer in return," the expert believes. The analyst is convinced that with Donald Trump back in the Oval Office, the scales tip in favor of Ukraine.
Trump's Ambitions: What Do His Statements About Greenland and Canada Mean?
The expert considers it extremely positive that, in the context of ongoing communication with President Zelensky, Ukrainian diplomacy, and the parallel acquisition of classified information regarding the progress of the war and its nature, Donald Trump's rhetoric has shifted away from the notion that the war can be ended very quickly.
"At the same time, it is unlikely that we can say today that the issue of our confrontation with the Russian Federation will be resolved by the United States in an extremely prompt manner. Yes, undoubtedly, this is a priority for Trump, but so far we see only processing of existing information and establishing a clear position. An important aspect in this regard is President Zelensky's visit to Poland, as official Warsaw has long been a conduit for American policy in Eastern Europe," notes Dmitry Levus.
In his opinion, "Trump's 'contact with reality' is now determining changes in his rhetoric: "In Trump's changing rhetoric, I see an important positive. Why? Because, for example, Trump's radical rhetoric regarding Greenland and Canada is post-election rhetoric, while with Ukraine, the situation is quite the opposite. That is, whereas Trump previously claimed that the Russian-Ukrainian war could be resolved in a matter of hours, his romanticism on this matter has dissipated when confronted with reality. Is this good for us? Yes, because the story that we would now 'cut everyone down with a saber' has finally ended, and Ukraine and the world are awaiting thoughtful decisions from Donald Trump."
Will Trump Expel Putin from the World Trade Organization?
The chief consultant of the Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, Ivan Us, is convinced that Trump will primarily continue to pursue what he wanted during his first presidential term.
1 Regarding relations with the EU, Ivan Us believes that Trump's promises will be realized, including his demands for increased purchases of natural resources from the EU by the United States.
"However, when it comes to China, the situation appears quite interesting. In Trump's circle, there are those who support a tough anti-China stance and those (including Elon Musk) who hold a pro-China position. Therefore, one can cautiously speculate that the first question after Trump's return to the Oval Office will be when he will fall out with Musk. I think that in the first half of this year, they will cease to be a united team. Regarding Russia... In Ukraine, there are certainly very high expectations, but whether Trump's policy will truly be tough towards the RF is a big question, as he has made numerous statements that are essentially contradictory, guided by some business calculations while pushing existential values to the background," Ivan Us believes.
Who Will Trump Negotiate With and About What First?
2 Vladimir Fesenko predicts that Donald Trump will attempt to negotiate with Ukraine and Russia on certain compromise terms soon after returning to the White House to end the war, but if he fails to achieve anything in the coming months, he will eventually "throw up his hands" and lose interest in the matter.