December 22, 2032: What are the dangers posed by the asteroid 2024 YR4?

A recently discovered near-Earth asteroid, comparable in size to the Statue of Liberty, has raised concerns among astronomers due to its potential threat of colliding with Earth. Scientists from the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) report the likelihood that this celestial object may impact Earth in 2032, writes Forbes.

The NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory estimates the chance of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth at 1.3%, with a projected impact date of December 22, 2032. However, according to independent calculations by astronomer Sam Dean, this probability could be as high as 6%. This asteroid is only the second in history for which the collision risk exceeds 1%, the first being 99942 Apophis — an object once regarded as a major threat for the years 2029, 2036, and 2068.

Discovered on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Rio Hurtado, Chile, 2024 YR4 has a diameter of 40-90 meters. Considering its size and trajectory, both IAWN and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) have been engaged to evaluate potential response strategies.

The European Space Agency's Planetary Defense Office has classified it as a high-risk asteroid, which is currently being monitored. If a collision occurs, the consequences could be catastrophic.

According to IAWN, an asteroid of this magnitude could cause significant explosive damage within a radius of 50 kilometers, with the main risk corridor extending across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and parts of South Asia.

Estimates by astronomer John Tonry suggest that the energy release could be equivalent to an explosion of 10 megatons, with the burn zone extending several kilometers from the impact site.

Despite these concerns, experts note that a collision remains unlikely. The Very Large Telescope of the European Southern Observatory has determined that 2024 YR4 has nearly a 99% chance of safely passing by Earth. However, scientists acknowledge that further observations are needed to refine its trajectory.

The window for direct observation remains open until April 2025, after which the asteroid will be inaccessible for observation until June 2028.

Additional radar, thermal infrared studies, or spacecraft flybys will be required for more accurate measurements of its size and trajectory. Until more data is available, astronomers will continue to assess possible mitigation strategies in case of a worst-case scenario.

Meanwhile, concerns surrounding the asteroid Apophis persist. Apophis, with a diameter of approximately 370 meters, was initially considered a significant threat for a collision with Earth following its discovery in 2004. Although NASA has officially ruled out any potential impact in 2029, 2036, or 2068, recent simulations indicate that unexpected interactions with another celestial object could still alter its trajectory.

On April 13, 2029, Apophis will pass within just 31,200 km of Earth — closer than some geostationary satellites. While a collision is not anticipated, astronomers will continue to monitor its trajectory, with new observations set to begin in 2027.

We also reported on the Iron Age royal house discovered in Oslo, Norway, which stands out among others for its size.