Russia is increasing its pace and remains determined to capture the entire Donetsk region, according to ISW.

Russia has increased its pace and shows no intention of halting its plans to seize the entire Donetsk region, according to ISW.

According to analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), recent advancements by Russian forces have been significantly faster than throughout 2023, and they remain intent on capturing the entirety of the Donetsk region.

This is reported by ISW.

"Recent confirmed victories of Russian troops near Ugledar and Velika Novosilka indicate that the war in Ukraine has not reached a stalemate. The frontline in the Donetsk region is becoming increasingly dynamic, as Russian forces have made significant progress recently compared to the entirety of 2023."

Analysts point out that the advancement of Russian troops in southeastern Ukraine is largely due to the identification and tactical exploitation of vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian frontline.

Since fall 2024, Russian forces have been making gradual tactical advances in southeastern Ukraine. Russian troops have not been able to restore the operational maneuvering seen in the early months of the full-scale Russian invasion, and while their current tactical progression is faster than the positional warfare that characterized much of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, it still lags significantly behind the pace of advancement in March 2022.

Russian troops have managed to leverage the capture of Ugledar for further offensive operations in western Donetsk, contrary to ISW's earlier erroneous assessment that anticipated the opposite.

ISW suggests the following courses of action that Russian command may consider in light of the recent advancements of their forces.

The movement of Russian troops toward Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Ugledar, and Velika Novosilka provides the Russian military command with several options to pursue in the coming weeks and months.

It appears that the Russian military command is simultaneously attempting to encircle Velika Novosilka while closing pockets with Ukrainian forces to the north and south of Kurakhove. Russian troops are also conducting supporting operations aimed at improving the battlefield geometry in southern Donetsk and reducing threats to the flanks of Russian forces.

ISW presents the following potential courses of action (COA) on the battlefield in no particular order, as each does not exclude the others.

COA 1: Russian troops advance southwest, east, and northeast of Velika Novosilka with the aim of surrounding the settlement from the flanks, bypassing the territory directly south of Velika Novosilka.

COA 2: Russian troops move toward Andriivka (along the N15 highway and west of Kurakhove) from the south to support Russian efforts to close Ukrainian "pockets" near Kurakhove and realign the frontline.

COA 3: Russian troops advance west and southwest from Selydivo along the Pustynka-Sontsivka line toward Andriivka, aiming to defeat the Ukrainian stronghold north of Kurakhove and create a threat to Ukrainian withdrawal routes.

Literally: "It remains unclear which of these objectives the Russian command will pursue, if any at all."

Details: Experts note that the priority for Russian command in the Donetsk region until the end of 2024 was the capture of Pokrovsk - a goal that Russian command temporarily abandoned after fierce Ukrainian resistance in the vicinity of Pokrovsk.

It is unclear how prepared the Russian command is to exploit opportunities in this sector of the front and what level of resistance Ukrainian forces will present as Russian forces advance.

"Ukraine has significantly blunted Russian offensive operations near Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk in 2024."

The report suggests that the Russian military command is likely planning how to advance into the southeastern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in support of Russia's longstanding goal - to capture the entire Donetsk region.

The objective set by the Kremlin to seize the entire Donetsk region likely involves ground operations in the south and east of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast aimed at cutting off Ukrainian ground lines of communication that support Ukrainian positions in the Donetsk region and encircling these positions.

"Russia's potential efforts to achieve the Kremlin's goal of capturing the entire Donetsk region through the occupation of at least part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast align with Russia's aim for the complete capitulation of Ukraine and the destruction of its independence and territorial sovereignty."

"The Russian military command appears to be planning more complex operations, but Russian forces have not yet been able to restore operational maneuvering on the battlefield and instead still rely on their ability to identify and exploit vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian defensive line for gradual tactical advancement."

Key Findings from ISW as of November 24:

• Recent confirmed victories of Russian troops near Ugledar and Velika Novosilka indicate that the war in Ukraine has not reached a stalemate. The frontline in the Donetsk region is becoming increasingly dynamic as Russian forces have made significant progress recently compared to the entirety of 2023.
• The movement of Russian troops toward Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Ugledar, and Velika Novosilka presents the Russian military command with several options to pursue in the coming weeks and months.
• The Russian military command is likely planning how to advance into the southeastern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in support of Russia's longstanding goal of capturing the entire Donetsk region.
• Units from Russia's Central, Eastern, and Southern military districts are conducting simultaneous, complementary offensive operations in the Donetsk region and have recently achieved relatively rapid tactical advances. The Russian military command may be learning from some battlefield mistakes after three years of war, but the extent of this learning remains unclear.
• The Russian military command appears to be planning more complex operations, but Russian forces have not yet been able to restore operational maneuvering on the battlefield and instead still rely on their ability to identify and exploit vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian defensive line for gradual tactical advancement.
• On the night of November 23-24, Ukrainian forces struck a radar of the Russian S-400 air defense system in the Kursk region.
• Reports indicate that Russia has recruited hundreds of Yemeni nationals to serve in the Russian army amid growing cooperation between Russia, Iran, and the Iran-backed Houthi movement.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces have recently advanced on the main Ukrainian front in the Kursk region.
• Russian troops have made gains near Kupiansk, Pokrovsk, Ugledar, and Velika Novosilka, while Ukrainian forces have advanced on the main Ukrainian front in the Kursk region.