**Clickbait Text:** Is peace between two nations finally on the horizon? Recent shifts in leadership and economic turmoil could change everything! Discover why the tides may be turning ...
About a year ago, my Polish colleagues asked me to express predictions regarding future Ukrainian-Russian peace negotiations. Many around the world somehow hoped that Putin's war would end in 2024. I had to disappoint the optimists by assuring them that it was futile to expect not only peace but even a ceasefire that year. Even a temporary one.
Why? The explanation is surprisingly simple. Due to supply issues with weapons and ammunition caused by disputes in the United States Congress, the Armed Forces of Ukraine found themselves on a starvation military ration during a particularly tense period of the war. The Russian occupying army took full advantage of this and managed to capture a stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine like Avdiivka. Subsequently, the occupiers were able to gain the initiative and expand their offensive zone, thus capturing even more Ukrainian territory. There were no grounds for the Russians to halt military actions and seek a truce in such a situation.
However, there was still hope on the Ukrainian side. Hope that American congressmen would finally reach an agreement and adopt an unprecedented aid package for Ukraine. That we would finally receive the long-desired F-16, American ATACMS missiles, and German TAURUS. There was hope that the governments of partner countries would allow strikes deep into Russian territory, destroying enemy headquarters, warehouses, and airfields. Thus, it was believed that the tide of the war could be turned, leading to a counteroffensive and the liberation of large territories, up to the Sea of Azov. Therefore, the Ukrainian side was in no rush to start negotiations.
I didn't need to be Vanga, Nostradamus, or even, God forbid, Globus, to predict the lack of progress in peace initiatives until the beginning of 2025. Essentially, until the inauguration of the new president of the United States, whoever that might be. Because if anyone was capable of initiating a peace process under the existing conditions, it was exclusively the head of the White House. But certainly not Grandpa Biden, who was too afraid of making sharp moves. And without such boldness, this matter cannot be moved off the dead center.
If I were asked now about the prospects for peace, I would assert that the chances have significantly increased. Although they are far from being a certainty. The Russian economy is extremely overheated and on the brink of collapse. Inflation is rising, the ruble's exchange rate is falling, and the purchasing power of the Russian population is diminishing. Although the Russians are managing to advance by capturing Ukrainian territories through "meat assaults," it is happening at an incredibly slow pace and at the cost of tremendous human losses. Recruiting new "meat" for the war is becoming increasingly difficult, and they are forced to raise the payments for recruits significantly.
The situation in Ukraine is not rosy either. Stabilizing the front has still not been achieved. Weapons and ammunition supposedly exist, but they will barely last for six months if Trump’s America does not restore military supplies. Mobilization seems to be ongoing, but it is extremely difficult; the "busification" has not been canceled.
Moreover, there has been a "leak" from Budanov. It was reported that the head of the GUR stated: "If there are no serious negotiations by summer, then very dangerous processes could start for the very existence of Ukraine." A denial followed, but as they say, the aftertaste remains.
In any case, both warring sides today are significantly more favorable towards some form of reconciliation than they were a year ago. And the new American president could play the role of a hidden ace.
In other words, Trump has become, as they would say in mathematics, a necessary condition, though not a sufficient one. In fact, the bridges for Ukrainian-Russian negotiations were being laid by the newly elected president's team as early as the beginning of January, even before the inauguration. Everyone expected that Trump would certainly mention this terrible war in his inaugural speech, and most importantly, confirm his promises to put an end to the conflict. However, we were met with disappointment. The new head of the White House spoke about everything – Canada, Greenland, Panama – but for some reason, he skipped over the war in Ukraine.
There is a logical explanation for this: it is one thing to throw around bravado promises while you are still, so to speak, in free swimming; it is entirely another when you are in a responsible position. Here, one must consider all circumstances, details, and nuances. Clearly, after hearing all of his advisors, Trump ultimately became convinced that resolving the conflicts in the promised "24 hours" would be utterly impossible. After all, no one with a sound mind expected that.
Thank God, the new U.S. president compensated for the "Ukrainian silence" at the inauguration with subsequent statements, demonstrating that he is by no means indifferent to this issue. The very next day after taking office, Trump, in the Oval Office, responding to journalists' questions about the future peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, stated: "Zelensky wants an agreement, Putin – I'm not so sure. He has to make it. I think Russia will have big problems!"
Later, Trump elaborated on his thoughts in his own social network, Truth Social. If we disregard the pleasantries towards Russia and Putin at the beginning of the post and start reading from a hypothetical "but," what do we find? That the head of the White House is essentially issuing an ultimatum to the Kremlin chief.
“I am going to do a huge FAVOR for Russia, whose economy is collapsing, and President Putin. Make a deal now and stop this senseless war! IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE FROM HERE. If we do not make a "deal" soon, I will have no choice but to impose high taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on everything Russia sells to the United States and other participating countries. Let’s end this war that would never have started if I were president! We can do it the easy way or the hard way – and the easy way is always better. It’s time to “MAKE A DEAL.” NO MORE LIVES SHOULD BE LOST!!!” – wrote the American president.
Well, this statement is quite encouraging for Ukrainians. Especially in the context of how the Kremlin was anticipating Trump's return to the White House. It was precisely with the new U.S. president that the Russian dictator Putin planned to nearly sign "Yalta 2.0," dividing the world into spheres of influence. Trump's statements currently provide no grounds for the Kremlin's frequent visitors to hope for the long-desired "Ukrainian sacrifice." Instead of the expected ultimatum to Zelensky, Trump hints at prior alignment of positions with his Ukrainian counterpart. And the ultimatum, as already mentioned, is directed at Putin.
Does Washington have leverage over Moscow? Most experts agree that it does. Primarily in the oil and banking sectors. Russia can be significantly pressured, but unfortunately, it cannot be suffocated, as expert opinion suggests.
However, in the pressure on the Kremlin, "two wings are equal": sanctions and military assistance to Ukraine. This is our "beautiful and useful." No matter how much the whole world pressures Russia, it will still be able to fight for a long time. And as for the deteriorating social situation of the Russians, the Kremlin has never paid much attention to that. The Russian leadership knows that a colored revolution is unlikely to happen.
Now, Trump needs to take the next step in his understanding of Russia, to rise to another level. He must realize one simple truth: most geopolitical problems in the world are created at least 50 percent by the Kremlin. The activation of Hamas and Hezbollah in the Middle East, the aggressiveness of North Korea, Maduro's dictatorial regime in Venezuela, the strengthening of the anti-democratic regime of the "Georgian Dream," the covert support of China in its ambitions toward Taiwan, the resilience of the ayatollah regime in Iran, not to mention Lukashenko's Belarus. And a multitude of smaller "hot spots" that can occasionally flare up, causing unpleasant troubles for the global community, like the Houthi missile strikes in the Red Sea. All of them are in one way or another fueled by "the hand of Moscow," i.e., Putin's hand.
Therefore, as long as Russia remains under Putin's regime, solving these named problems will be a futile waste of effort and time. At most, one might manage to freeze the problem for a short time, similar to the war in Donbas.
As the Kremlin chief loves to repeat, "we need to eliminate the root cause." And the root cause sits in the Kremlin. And this is something Donald Trump must understand. Or more precisely, first – the competent people in his team, who will be able to convince their boss that there is no alternative to toppling the current Russian regime. It does exist – it is the aimless tread in place and the fight against the consequences of Kremlin provocations – an eternal