"Russia's Vulnerable Skies: How the strike on Engels revealed critical issues within the country's air defense systems."
A strike on the oil depot in Engels… interesting, just a little bit.
The strike on Engels was a significant indicator for many. Not only because it hosts the largest base for strategic aviation, which includes storage facilities for both aviation fuel and munitions for combat missions. No, I want to draw attention to something else.
According to the data from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 1,038 units of air defense systems, either destroyed, damaged, or captured. As of today, the air defense category of the Russian Armed Forces is the least compensated. This is due to the production of air defense systems in Russia being only a few units per month, with recovery being similarly limited. While the Russian Armed Forces lose an average of three dozen air defense systems each month, they can only produce or restore a handful.
Currently, Russia has entered a phase of critical shortage of air defense systems! But this is just the explanatory part.
Neither the USSR nor Russia has ever been able to completely secure its airspace. In both the Soviet era and present-day Russia, there have always been areas with a full-fledged layered air defense, some areas were somewhat protected, while others were simply blank spots, gaps covering tens of thousands of square kilometers.
From 2022 to 2023, the Moscow region and Crimea were considered the most protected. However, there were also solid middle-tier regions, including the Saratov region. Overall, since the Soviet times, this area had quite a decent layered air defense. But…
However, recently there have been multiple instances of export air defense systems on duty in Russian regions, indicating the withdrawal or even repurchase of these contracted systems to compensate for the shortage of missile systems. Not long ago, I published a post analyzing a brash propaganda report from Russian media about air defense in the Moscow region, where a unique Arctic missile system "Pantsir-S1" was highlighted. Designed for the Arctic region and its extremely harsh conditions, this complex now protects Moscow. But what happened?
Nevertheless, it’s not just about Moscow; one of the key regions, the Saratov region, is evidently under threat once again, and denying the success of the current situation would be foolish. Did debris fall? Are you serious?
Ukraine continues to methodically deplete Russian air defense and simultaneously strike at critically important targets. In turn, the Kremlin, standing at the Rubicon before Donald Trump’s inauguration, has not been able to demonstrate anything to convince the 47th President of the USA that he needs to negotiate rather than apply pressure. In Kursk, there was a failure; in Engels, a spectacular strike, and the operational-tactical objectives for the Russian Armed Forces in the conflict zone were not accomplished before the inauguration.
Somehow, Russia is not entering 2025 with much confidence, despite planning to issue ultimatums and demands.
However, if we are to consider the words of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky regarding the production of strike drones and missiles, Ukraine has not even begun its strikes against Russia. This has all been preparation, so to speak – softening the meat before roasting.
The author expresses a personal opinion that may not align with the position of the editorial team. The responsibility for the published information in the "Opinions" section lies with the author.