Intense solar flares, which are sudden releases of energy and radiation, pose a significant threat to Earth. However, predicting the occurrence of solar flares is quite challenging. Now, researchers have identified a type of solar activity in the Sun's atmosphere that may precede and thus signal upcoming solar flares. The study, published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters, has important implications for ensuring the safety of astronauts and space objects, according to Gizmodo.
Forecasting solar flares is crucial for protecting both people and technology from the adverse effects of solar activity. Solar flares can disrupt satellite communications, GPS systems, and electrical grids on Earth, and can also expose astronauts and spacecraft to harmful levels of solar radiation. Therefore, a reliable early warning system could help mitigate the impacts of solar flares.
Utilizing data from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory, scientists analyzed coronal loops. These are arc-shaped plasma structures in the Sun's outer atmosphere, known as the corona. These coronal loops appeared just before the occurrence of strong solar flares.
The data on coronal loops exist in the same active regions of the Sun that cause solar flares. Researchers found that the brightness of coronal loops in extreme ultraviolet light changed significantly more when they formed prior to solar flares.
According to the scientists, it was found that loops that formed over regions of the Sun where flares were expected flickered in ultraviolet light for several hours before the event. Thus, the researchers believe that monitoring the brightness changes of coronal loops could serve as a valuable tool for predicting solar flares and hazardous space weather.
Scientists believe that such observations could help predict solar flares 2-6 hours before their actual occurrence on the Sun, with an accuracy ranging from 60% to 80%. This is significantly more precise than current forecasting methods.
The researchers also concluded that the stronger the future solar flare, the earlier the brightness of the coronal loops will begin to change, although additional observations are needed to confirm this.
For decades, scientists have been attempting to predict solar flares in advance. If the study's findings prove accurate, monitoring coronal loops could help mitigate the negative impacts of flares on terrestrial technologies, as it would provide a more precise timing for their occurrence.