Wars will engulf the world, and critical Earth systems will fail: the biggest threats of 2025 have been identified.
The World Economic Forum is an international analytical center behind the annual meeting in Davos and numerous other projects. For two decades, it has published its Global Risks Report, which outlines the most significant risks to the planet both in the short and long term, as reported by IFLScience.
What does this report actually entail, and how can we predict what will become a global issue in the future? Researchers note that a "global risk" is defined as the likelihood of an event or condition occurring that will inevitably impact a substantial portion of the global GDP, the world’s population, and natural resources. They emphasize that the list of major threats can include environmental risks as well as geopolitical, social, economic, or technological issues.
More than 900 experts from academia, business, government, and other fields contribute to the report. Simultaneously, the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) serves as the World Economic Forum's primary data source on risks. During the report's preparation, researchers gather responses to questions from various communities and then present a ranking to the public.
Respondents are also asked how they believe individual risks interact with one another, as well as their outlook on risks for the coming year. What conclusions have experts drawn this year?
Main Threat of 2025
The world today is rife with battles and destructive wars, so it’s no surprise that the greatest threat of the current year is identified as "armed conflict at the state level." Statistics show that nearly one in four respondents selected this threat as the most likely out of 33 options proposed by researchers.
It’s worth noting that last year, armed conflict risks were only in 8th place, but this year, the position of this threat has significantly increased. In the medium- and long-term outlook over the coming years, the risk of armed conflict ranks third, while over the decade, it stands at 12th place.
Experts cite numerous accompanying risks, including cyber espionage, wars, and misinformation. However, the primary concern highlighted in the report relates to the lack of international efforts to maintain peace. In simple terms, experts fear that in the future, the world may resort to an even harsher style of warfare.
Main Threat After 2025
If humanity manages to survive the next 12 months, what awaits us in the future? Researchers indicate that in this scenario, climate change will become the principal threat to the world as a whole.
Statistics reveal that one in seven respondents identified extreme weather events as the most likely threat in the next 2-10 years. Previous studies have already shown that anthropogenic climate change is making already extreme weather events even more dangerous, and the situation is expected to worsen. A stark example of climate change's impact is the wildfires that have engulfed Los Angeles.
Moreover, scientists point out that nearly all environmental risks are included in the top ten. Loss of biodiversity and ecosystem collapse rank second, having risen from third place last year, and significantly deteriorating compared to the two-year ranking (21st place). Critical changes in Earth systems are in third place, resource shortages are fourth, and pollution is tenth, rounding out a rather grim forecast of environmental risks.
Is There a Solution?
The experts' outlook is undoubtedly pessimistic, as 9 out of 10 respondents view future global prospects as "unstable and turbulent." However, researchers note that there is indeed a way out. The good news is that humanity can potentially solve most of these issues. The bad news is that the world needs to unite and act collectively, which is not an easy task.