Hope for peace: is it genuine or just an illusion?

I greet the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine with mixed feelings, much like most of my compatriots. The pessimistic sentiments, provoked by changes in characters in the White House that threaten to withdraw military support, thus worsening the situation on the battlefield, dissolve in the fragrant oil of hope for a swift end to this bloody war.

Three years ago, few expected the war to last this long. Will it be possible to end it soon? Hardly anyone today would dare to give a clear, unequivocal answer to this question. There is only hope. But that hope existed three years ago as well. I remember on February 24, 2022, as soon as I recovered from the initial shock of the news and missile attacks, I wrote a naive post on Facebook expressing hope, or rather, almost conviction, that the full-scale invasion could not last long. Perhaps not the "two or three weeks" as suggested by Arestovych, but still, a prolonged war is not necessary for Russia itself, for Putin, or for the Kremlin's regulars. After all, the mobilized Russian forces at that time were far too few to carry out a full occupation. And how do the Russians envision this occupation? They invade our territory, capture some Ukrainian city or village, and then what? They will drive around in comical vehicles with loudspeakers, calling stunned Ukrainian citizens to come for registration at the commandant's office. At least, that’s the macabre picture my imagination painted, extrapolating scenes from Soviet films about World War II. It seemed utterly absurd in the 21st century.

However, it quickly became clear that this macabre scenario brought by the Russian occupiers has now become our reality. In the occupied territories, not only commandant offices and occupation administrations appeared, but also torture chambers and even modern Babi Yars. The word "Bucha" sounded as a horrifying warning to the world, transforming from the name of a town near Kyiv into a general term for the monstrous atrocities committed by Russian occupiers.

Before the invasion, how many people in the world, and particularly in Ukraine, truly believed that it would escalate into a real full-scale war? I honestly admit I was 99 percent convinced it wouldn't happen, that Russia would not dare to take such a mad step. Not at all because of our President Volodymyr Zelensky's statements or his "shashlik" reassurances. No.

I simply tried to think logically. And logic clearly outlined such a picture for me. The current system of world order, with its globalist tendencies, strong economic, political, and cultural ties, is incredibly beneficial for Russia. Russia and China are the two main beneficiaries of this system; it brings them trillion-dollar profits, allows state leaders to enrich themselves while keeping society at a satisfactory socio-economic level. The system ensures sustainable development for both countries, loyalty from the elites, and obedience from the masses. It allows for the realization of the most fantastic projects and the development of all necessary social infrastructure. But despite common sense, Russia dared to destroy this prosperity, this attractive global system, and China gave its blessing, only asking not to start the war until February 20, 2022, that is, until the closing of the Olympics in Beijing.

Recently, I listened to an interview with one of the most decorated members of the popular Russian TV club "What? Where? When?" Rovshan Askerov, who timely fled Russia and now lives in one of the Western countries, criticizing the Putin regime and having no desire to return. What caught my attention in this interview? His praises for Moscow: "I loved Moscow very much. I believe it was the best city on Earth. It was the ideal city for living. A city for people... And now that city is gone. The state has destroyed it." One can agree with Askerov's statements about Moscow (and I have heard such admiration for "pre-war" Moscow from more than one person, not just Russians), or one can regard them skeptically, but the undeniable fact is that in Russia, especially in its large cities (not only Moscow and St. Petersburg), there thrived a comfortable life at a fairly high social level. And it is also a fact that "the state has destroyed it."

For what? For ephemeral greatness, "rising from our knees," "so that everyone respects (fears) us," "takes our interests into account." But all this existed. Russia was in the elite club of the world's most influential countries – the G8. Russian leaders were welcomed in all capitals across five continents, world leaders had no problem visiting Moscow, including for the parade on Red Square on May 9. Russians were invited to global projects: energy, security, space, etc. So what was it, if not global influence and worldwide respect? What other signs of attention did you lack?

Do you remember the repentance of German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, expressed in March 2022 for the incorrect assessment of the Putin regime's readiness for invasion: "My assessment was that Vladimir Putin would not want to pay the full economic, political, and moral ruin of his country for his imperial madness. Like others, I was wrong."

Steinmeier, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron, and other high-ranking Western politicians were convinced that Russia's involvement in the European economy, active trade with it, and the movement of capital would absolutely guarantee a good neighborly coexistence. That Moscow would abandon its aggressive policy, including towards Ukraine and other former Soviet republics, even if they chose a Western vector of development. Yes, all these giants of Western politics were mistaken. It turned out that one could expect the most unexpected (forgive the tautology) actions from Russia.

But let's return to hope. Observing the situation on the battlefield, one gets the impression that peace is nowhere in sight; the intensity of shelling and attacks is only increasing. So where does hope come from? It was born from the peacekeeping hyperactivity of American President Donald Trump. He hadn't even been in the Oval Office for a month when he managed to agree with Putin to start negotiations on ending the Russian-Ukrainian war, appoint responsible parties for the process, send a delegation to Saudi Arabia, which has already met with representatives of the Kremlin, and even come to some agreements. The Americans and Russians agreed, so far, not on a ceasefire in Ukraine, but merely on restoring diplomatic relations as usual. As for Ukraine, they only agreed to agree. But even that is something.

How will the peace process proceed from here? It is difficult to predict, as the new American administration has made a number of mistakes before starting negotiations. The White House has practically revealed all its trump cards, leaving itself minimal room to maneuver. So what remains in reserve – Ukrainian sovereignty, our territories, our lives? The Russians are clearly set on not making any compromises. Although, maybe we just don't know, and Trump, in the meantime, has hidden a trump card up his sleeve, and with feigned naivety, has caused the Russians to let their guard down. Yes, I am just trying to instill optimism in myself. But I want to believe that it’s not "all is lost" – as one Ukrainian politician said. That those absurd and offensive statements by Trump about Ukraine, Zelensky, Putin, etc. are just a smokescreen, creating a protective veil for executing a clever move.

In any case, Kyiv will now have to watch closely to ensure that no treacherous "deal" is made behind its back, one that would ignore Ukrainian interests. At the same time, it will be necessary to cooperate more closely with European partners, who have now become virtually the only allies, the only hope that Ukraine will not be entirely swallowed by the Kremlin. European capitals are increasingly realizing: if Putin is not stopped in Ukraine, he will definitely move further west. And they are not just realizing it, but are also devising real preventive measures.