Yehor Firsov: What will happen if America abandons us?
I didn't want to publish this lengthy text, but I decided to do so.
If America abandons us. My subjective perspective.
Once, a journalist from the USA came to us and asked, what do you have in your arsenal that you can brag about?
I scratched my head. I didn't want to offend him, but in my brigade – which, by the way (!), has been holding the front line in the most difficult direction for three years – we only had Starlink...
In the minds of ordinary people, and even politicians, there is much that no longer corresponds to reality. The situation on the battlefield changes very rapidly, and what was considered the "god of war" yesterday is not at the forefront of the military pantheon today.
So, to understand the consequences of a possible halt in American assistance for the front, let’s analyze what we are really dependent on the USA for today.
The first is not even weapons, but communication. Starlink! If it goes down, problems will arise immediately: infantry in strongholds, reconnaissance, drone crews, artillerymen, and command posts in brigades and battalions – everyone uses Starlink.
With WhatsApp, it’s easy to call almost to the farthest position and talk with a soldier via video link. After destroying any target with an FPV drone – we immediately send this video to the headquarters, which allows commanders to understand the situation on the battlefield in real-time.
If Starlink is turned off – disorganization in command may begin within the first hour. Moreover, some drones that operate solely with satellite assistance may also fail...
I honestly believe that Starlink will not be turned off. Because that would not just be a halt in assistance, but an overtly hostile action in favor of Russia. It’s unlikely that the new administration will dare to show such blatant hostility towards the Ukrainian people.
However, we must be prepared for this. And we should have been working on an alternative communication solution "yesterday".
For instance, the enemy has created an alternative communication system – these are Wi-Fi bridges – broad Wi-Fi connections where one can connect to the internet.
We still have time. No need to panic. But this resource needs to be used effectively because problems can arise very unexpectedly.
The second aspect where we are significantly dependent on the USA is air defense. Specifically, the Patriot systems and their munitions. We urgently need to seek alternatives: both for supplies and for the systems themselves. Otherwise, Ukrainian cities will be defenseless. This point must be one of the first in negotiations with Europe.
Now for some good news. It is not for nothing that this war is called the "first drone war" – this means that most hits are delivered by various types of drones. And predominantly, these drones are not from the USA. But I know that through various means, including non-governmental channels, the USA funds some projects.
Initially, the drones were Chinese. Now there are FPVs that are almost entirely (including components!) produced in Ukraine.
Approximately 80% of all hits are delivered by drones. The use of other types of weapons has significantly decreased compared to 2022-2023.
The use of artillery has now decreased tenfold compared to the barrage that occurred in 2022. Even from the enemy's side. Artillery systems are worn out, shells are much fewer, and they are not precise. Artillery is now used for important but narrow, specific tasks. Or to cover UAVs during bad weather for drones.
Regarding munitions for drones – we have a "shadow defense industry" that is virtually impossible to destroy even with great effort.
In thousands of basements and rural houses, munitions of various types are produced. Outdated Soviet mines are being re-engineered, explosive materials are being prepared in multicookers, and the munitions we need are being made. Moreover, of various types – from high-explosive to thermobaric. This is, of course, a simplification. In reality, we have created a whole industry for self-sufficiency in drone munitions.
Including about fifty official manufacturers of munitions are already operating.
It is this "shadow" and official defense industry that has provided us with the munitions that have destroyed those 80 percent of targets over the past year. I write all this to point out that Himars, or the "777" howitzer, are no longer the kings of the front. The drone reigns on the battlefield!
By the way, regarding Himars. Unfortunately, the enemy has long found ways to spoof our shots by altering coordinates. Missiles arrive, but not to the intended locations… The effectiveness of Himars, unfortunately, has diminished.
I do not know if the Americans realize this, but such a bitter truth is that complexes costing hundreds of millions of dollars sometimes do not yield adequate results. They should have been actively used to destroy everything in the first year of the war. But at that time, our supply of shells was limited. The opportunity for significant impact was lost.
Next is the Javelin anti-tank complex. Of course, it is an important tool. It saved us in the initial months. But now – it is no longer the decisive weapon on the battlefield. If there are a few successful uses of Javelin across the entire front in a month – that’s good. In comparison – drones deliver over 10,000 verified hits per month.
Now, regarding Pentagon intelligence. This is not my area of expertise, but I think that the USA shared strategic information regarding enemy plans, troop movements, and satellite imagery data. And of course, any information regarding the enemy is crucial.
It is hard to say whether Europeans or someone else can become an alternative source of such intelligence. This may complicate our ability to strike targets on Russian territory.
But one thing I can say for sure: platoons, companies, and brigades have never systematically relied on Pentagon data to destroy a specific enemy position on the front line. (Or it was done extremely rarely, as part of special operations, as an exception).
Modern battles are very maneuverable and dynamic. If a tank fires from some location, that position is relevant for a short period of time. After firing, the tank quickly hides and even covers its tracks. Therefore, the cessation of intelligence information transfer should not affect the effectiveness of the combat process.
I see more threats to the front from problems within our infantry than from the cessation of assistance from any side. But that is already our domestic task.
I will immediately say that besides what has been mentioned, the USA funds many other programs – such as our training, non-military programs, and also has an influence on various institutions that provide us with funding.
But right now, we are talking about critical priorities.
I also do not want to diminish the role of any types of weapons. In military matters, diversity is important.
Even if it’s the Javelin – which was used once a year during a heavy downpour – when all drones ceased to operate.
And this text is not to suggest that we can tell everyone to go to hell and resist an enemy like Russia without external support. As they say, it’s easier to beat a father in a group. But if it so happens that we find ourselves without US support, or even under pressure from the Trump administration, know this: we, the Ukrainian people, have come a long way over these years and have accomplished a great deal. And fortunately, in military terms, we have become significantly less dependent on our partners.
We must realize: our friends and main allies today are drones. And those skilled hands and minds that produce them. And they will not betray us.
Therefore – yes, if it so happens – without US support, it will be difficult for us. Sometimes – very much! The war will not "end in 24 hours," Ukraine will pay a higher price for peace in Europe than it could have. Let this be on the conscience of specific politicians, not the American people. But we will be able to endure. If we are together. Just like in the first days…
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